By Mandy Park
Activist and presidential candidate of the National Conscience Party (NCP) in 2015, Martin Onovo, 2015 had a media chat recently where he spoke on some critical issues.
In this no-holds-bared interview, described said President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s subsidy removal on fuel is an economic sabotage on the nation and an early indication of what would come later. He re-emphasised that INEC published fraudulent results, insisting that President Tinubu’s swearing-in was unlawful and tenure illegitimate.
Excerpt
President Tinubu, in his inaugural speech, promised that security, improved economic growth, and policies aimed at discouraging corruption would be the top priorities of his administration. In some ways, these are the same security, economy and anti-corruption policy thrust of the immediate past administration of President Muhammadu Buhari. What do you think impeded Buhari from successfully realising those goals, and what do you that Tinubu should do to succeed?
Universally, leadership requires vision, integrity, competence, and diligence. Therefore, the performance of any leader can be predicted even before he assumes office. Please note that I did not say before he is elected, because from the conduct of the last general elections, votes again did not count. Repeatedly, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), published fraudulent results, dared political parties to go to court, and then denied them access to key election materials required to prove their cases.
Prior to the 2015 elections, we concluded that Gen. Muhammadu Buhari was the worst of the 14 presidential candidates based on the universal criteria and requirements for leadership; it was clear. Buhari was the least educated, the oldest, and the weakest medically, mentally, and morally. He had an unrealistic, utopian vision and he was very divisive. Buhari lacked the leadership capacity to succeed. We identified him in 2015 as the worst candidate and he confirmed our prediction. Nigerians overwhelmingly agree that he is the worst president ever. Similarly, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has no chance of success. His vision is inept and misaligned. He is too old, too sick, and very incompetent. He is without formal education. He lacks all the critical requirements for leadership. Also, he lost the election woefully and still seized the office. His swearing-in was unlawful and his tenure is illegitimate. Tinubu lacks the leadership capacity to succeed and cannot succeed. The way out for Tinubu is to audit his election, confess like the INEC’s lawyer did at the presidential elections tribunal and install the democratically elected candidate. He will then become a hero and retire with a good legacy.
The president has promised that his administration would govern but never rule; consult and dialogue but never dictate; and reach out to all but never put down a single person for holding views contrary to that of his All Progressives Congress (APC). What is your take on that?
We concluded that it is deceitful. Did he secure our mandate? Was he not dictatorial over the fuel subsidy removal? Did he comply with the 2023 Appropriation Act? Did he consult anybody? Did he consult even his own non-existent national economic management team? The answers to these questions is no, he did not consult anyone.
The discussion around the fuel subsidy removal has been on for some time, with many kicking against it. Now that it has been removed and the effects are harsh on the common man, the government is making frantic efforts to put in place palliative measures to cushion its effect; do you think it was hurriedly done?
Has fuel subsidy really gone? The 2023 Appropriation Act provided funding for the subsidy till the end of June 2023. Was Tinubu not reckless and dictatorial with his ‘subsidy is gone’ statement? Is the unpatriotic removal of the subsidy not a violation of the constitutional purpose of government, which is the security and welfare of the people? Are the promised benefits of subsidy removal not false? What are the benefits of the removal of subsidy on diesel and kerosene? Where are the benefits of the 2016 removal of subsidy on petrol by Gen. Buhari?
This attempt by Tinubu to recklessly remove the fuel subsidy is lazy, tyrannical, plan-less and devastating. Energy is critical to productivity and economic development. To increase productivity, we must provide abundant and affordable energy supply. The removal of subsidy does the contrary; it makes energy un-affordable and surely leads to economic recession. This cannot be contradicted as it was confirmed when Gen. Buhari removed subsidy on petrol in 2016.
The immediate consequence of this reckless attempt to remove subsidy is hyperinflation. This was followed by devaluation and increasing poverty. Any policy that increases the inflation rate, devalues the Naira further and increases poverty is tantamount to national economic sabotage. This is national economic sabotage.
Considering that we are importing this refined product, we need FOREX to import. Then, following the devaluation, we will need more Naira to get the same amount of FOREX for the refined product. This will put even more pressure on the Naira and further devalue our currency, making us poorer. Without domestic refining, there is no benefit to subsidy removal and the consequences are crushing. They include inflation, devaluation, increased poverty, increased unemployment, increased crime, increased production costs, and decreased productivity, among others. The promised investments in infrastructure, education and health, are a mirage. The so-called savings from the subsidy removal will be dissipated by the macro-economic instability, contraction and disruptions arising from the removal. Again, where are the savings and investments from the removal of subsidy on diesel? Where are the savings and investments from Gen. Buhari’s removal of subsidy in 2016?
What condition do you think should be in place before the subsidy on fuel can be removed?
The condition precedent for the subsidy removal is domestic refining. Domestic refining will increase our gross domestic product (GDP), reduce costs, guarantee energy security, improve revenue, preserve FOREX, and strengthen the Naira. This policy is a distraction from the right answer which is domestic refining. The right answer is to first fight the incompetence, waste and corruption, in the subsidy scheme, and then, focus on restoring and upgrading the domestic refining capacity. The audit of subsidy claims by President Goodluck Jonathan-led government confirmed that about 30 percent of subsidy claims was fraudulent. Current estimates by credible professionals confirmed that about 50 percent is fraudulent.
You insist that the removal of subsidy at this time is reckless and spells doom for the nation, can you elaborate on that?
The subsidy is necessary to keep the energy for transportation and production activities affordable. The removal of subsidy makes energy very expensive, and will surely lead to economic recession. Remember that after Buhari removed subsidy in 2016, the country went into a recession. As previously indicated, this unreasonable and unpatriotic policy is associated with hyperinflation, devaluation, poverty, economic contraction, increased unemployment, industrial strife, and increased crime.
You also talked about local refining of fuel; as of March 2021, the Federal Government had licensed about 23 private refineries with a total capacity of 1.09 million barrels per day (bpd). Most of them didn’t come on stream because the winners of the license believed the fuel subsidy would have made it unprofitable, what is your view?
False; there are many different reasons they did not come up. Even with the fuel subsidy in place, it will be cheaper for Nigeria National Petroleum Company (NNPCL) Limited to buy from domestic refineries than from foreign refineries. In that case, NNPC Limited will need much less subsidy from the government.
The Dangote Refinery is one of the refineries licensed by Federal Government; it was recently commissioned with representatives of the government in attendance. What does that say about the state-owned refineries?
The Dangote Refinery has not started production. The condition of our state-owned refineries simply means that they have been run down by the incompetent and corrupt political leadership in the country.
Tinubu is the first president since 1999 to get elected with less than 10 million votes. In fact, he polled 8,794, 726 votes out of the 24.9 million votes cast at the election; what does that signify?
I will ask the question again, was Tinubu elected or appointed by the tag team of the INEC Chairman, Prof Mahmood Yakubu, and Buhari? Did Tinubu poll 8.7 million votes or did INEC declare fraudulent results for him? The results declared by INEC are clearly fraudulent because they are inconsistent with the authentic results in the possession of polling officers, party agents, stakeholders, and even with the results published on the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal. It is unreasonable to try to uphold such obviously fraudulent results. All the major stakeholders have rightly rejected the forged results, including all the major political parties, local and international observers, Nigerian workers, Nigerian socio-cultural organisations, and Civil Society Organisation (CSOs), among others. The results cannot be upheld because they are criminally forged and have been democratically rejected.
If you are to advise Tinubu on how to achieve the goals he has set for himself in his inaugural speech; what would be your advice
I will advise him to withdraw the goals, confess that he woefully lost the elections and get INEC to declare the authentic results. Then, retire from politics and go home to his grandchildren. That way, he will establish a good legacy for himself.
